The big news came out of the Cook Political Report, one of the preeminent political handicapping services in the country, which moved two states — Florida and Nevada — in the President’s direction. Florida moved from “lean Democrat” to “Toss Up,” while Nevada went from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
“Biden’s Electoral College lead has narrowed to 279 to 187 for Trump,” wrote Cook’s Amy Walter of the moves. “Earlier this summer, Biden held a 308 to 187 lead.”
Also on Thursday, The Economist updated its electoral model, writing this:
“In early June The Economist published its own statistical forecasting model for this November’s presidential contest to guide such handicapping. Back then, it gave Donald Trump at best a one-in-five chance of winning a second term. But by July, as unrest and the coronavirus ravaged the nation, his odds had slumped to as low as one-in-ten. There they stayed until the middle of August. Now, our model shows Mr Trump has clawed back a sizeable chunk of support.”
All of which leads us to the question: Are we seeing the stirring of an actual Trump comeback? Or is the movement effectively a dead-cat bounce rather than a sign of an actual increased chance for Trump to beat former Vice President Joe Biden on November 3?
That question is difficult to answer with any sort of certainty for a few reasons — most notably that we are still 53 days from the election. And we are still in the grips of a pandemic that is projected to kill more than 400,000 Americans by the end of the year. And in the middle of a national conversation about race that has sparked protests — peaceful and violent — across the country. And with the least predictable or traditional person in the White House in modern American history.
In short: The last two-ish months before an election are always chaotic and somewhat unpredictable. That goes quadruple for this election.
But simply because we can’t say anything definitive doesn’t mean there’s nothing to see here. And what these latest stirrings in the electoral map look like are a sort of return to normalcy in the electorate as opposed to any major movement in Trump’s favor.